Enterprising Investor Forum

Come back next Monday for more - Enjoy!

Nothing new but we thought that this was an interesting char to post in order to visualize the extreme run that oil and overall commodities have had in the past 2 years.

We have used ETFs for this graph- please click on the graph to enlarge:

- PowerShares DB Commodity Idx Trking Fund (DBC)

- iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Tot Ret Idx ETN (OIL)

- Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI)

- Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND)

- Vanguard Small Cap Value ETF (VBR)

- Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ)

Naturally, the question is how long will this last? Sooner or later things will have to turn around and it is precisely in these times that we have to take a long-term view. To confirm this, most of the top ranking value oriented money managers are claiming that it has been years since they have seen these many opportunities in the market place. Having said this, it also means that there is risk so make sure you stay away for things you can’t understand and focus on solid businesses which will come back once the economy turns around.

If you want to have an idea of what the top value guys are buying, have a look at GuruFocus, it’s a great place to get investing ideas: link.

Please read our disclaimer.

Buffett-mania simply gets crazier every year. A Chinese investment fund manager just won the charity auction to have lunch with Mr. Buffett with a final bid of $2,110,100!

The winner is Zhao Danyang of the Hong Kong-based Pureheart China Growth Investment Fund. Last year Mr. Pabrai had the pleasure of winning the auction for $650,100.

As per the press release, Mr. Danyang and up to seven friends will dine with Warren at the Smith & Wollensky steakhouse in New York whenever they can manage to schedule it - hopefully Mr. Danyang isn’t too busy!

Today we”ll start a new series on Dilbert videos with a montage on his boss:

Come back next Monday for more - Enjoy!

Ever wonder what Davos is all about? What the World Economic Forum really is? Here is n interview with Klaus Schwab the Founder and Executive Chairman:

Enjoy!

There is really no need to be a hero today.

Taking into account current market conditions and volatility, we would strongly recommend to adopt a wait and see attitude - keep on monitoring your watchlist but do not try to catch a falling knife!

There is too much uncertainty, speculation and unwinding of positions for the average investor… with so many professionals forced to de-leverage - sometimes from 30+ to the mid 10s - there is simply too much risk in the market.

Until we see what the next round of earnings have to offer it is going to be extremely difficult to value most of the business prospects out there, even for the long-term investor… you might see the occasional rally in the following weeks but more likely a strong downtrend.

There is no hurry, we will definitely witness a log and hot summer!

Once again, we witnessed Mr. Market in one of his crazy days where he completely misunderstands/undervalues a company.

Following news that Mr. Silverman, Quality Systems (QSII) CEO since 2000, resigned the stock dropped by almost 5%. Does this event change QSIIs numbers? No. This remains a strong business with a bright future operating in the right sector. Healthcare will continue to grow and QSII is in an ideal position to reap all potential gains.

All the key management team remains in place and this event does not change the outlook for the company. If anything, it will stop recent boardroom discussions and hopefully serve as a catalyst for more focus.

Having said this, despite recent upgrades and BUY ratings, QSII currently has a short percentage of the float of 30.20%! Is this justfified by the following numbers? Up to you to make your mind up:

• ROA - 23.67%
• ROE - 39.11%
• Net margins - 21.49%
• Operating margins - 31.84%
• Sales growth - 18.67%
• Profit growth - 20.60%
• EPS growth - 19.65%

Please read our disclaimer.

We’ve upgraded some of the Dilbert stuff to video - Enjoy!

Come back next Monday for more investing humor!

WSJ interview with Mr. Schultz on his return to Starbucks as CEO and how he plans on getting the company back on track. He talks about his strategy, the economy, new competitors in the coffee market and more….

He has definitely started to kick-start the restructuring / refocusing program but it will be an uphill battle to take the stock price back to former glory. We will continue to follow his progress.

Please read our previous post on Starbucks: here.

This is an interesting CNBC interview with Jim Rogers where he discusses his outlook for Asia and commodities:

He did mention that very few investors where able to buy commodities but now that funds and ETFs have allowed practically anyone to participate in this run-up, does this mean we are in the bubble he is talking about?

Enjoy!